Is Russia turning into a problem for the West? Ask Edward Lucas, the author of The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces both Russia and the West, who seems to know all about what Russia is up to.
“The day the Soviet Union collapsed was the happiest day of my life and I would never want to set the clock back,” says Lucas, the Central and Eastern Europe correspondent of The Economist, in his London office.
He comes across as a man convinced that something has gone wrong with the way Russia is governed.
A lot has happened since his book was published in February, including the war in South Ossetia, which shook up the region.
“If there was ever a taboo on the use of military force by the Kremlin, that is gone,” he says.
Lucas is worried that the European Union has gone back to sleep after waking up to the threat from Russia.
“For the Kremlin, the lesson of the war in Georgia is that Europe is divided and won’t do anything,” he says.
But the United States and Nato, he believes, have taken the threat from Russia more seriously.
“The US cares about small countries in Europe in a way the big European powers don’t,” he says.
One could argue it makes greater sense for Europe to have an alliance with Russia rather than the US, which is geographically distant.
Such an alliance would make sense in terms of access to energy resources as well.
“There is no doubt Russia’s long-term aim is to separate Europe and America,” Lucas says.
“They want to bust the Atlantic alliance and I am sure they won’t [be successful]. The alliance is the foundation of European security. I want the Americans to stay in Europe and I want Europe to be a priority for them.
"Not least because we have seen what happens when they are not there — as in Bosnia and Kosovo. Europe is incapable of running its own defences.”
Lucas appears to view Russia as more guilty in the South Ossetia war. He emphasises in a lot of detail the tactics to provoke Georgia but concedes it did act unwisely.
In his book, Lucas makes a powerful case against the Russian government run by the former KGB and the ruthless tactics it employs to quell dissent.
Many rejoice at the potential this may have for a new confrontation between the US and Russia.
So what in Lucas’s view would be the worst-case scenario? “Nuclear war,” he replies rather chillingly. He believes the danger of an accidental nuclear war is rising because the Russians are twitchy about being the junior side.
But he says the more likely outcome is that Russia shall continue to use money to get what it wants: “They are buying politicians, buying political parties, sometimes buying countries. The use of this mix of energy, cash and diplomacy is extremely effective.”
Lucas thinks “war on terror” is a stupid expression. “You can’t have a war on terror. You have a war against other countries and when they lose, the war is over.
"And I don’t know what would constitute a victory in the war on terror. You are always going to have terrorism of some sort. We have had it for decades, arguably centuries.”
He says the Bush administration’s policies have come at a terrible cost to Eastern Europe.
“If we hadn’t had September 11, if we hadn’t had the American reaction to it, by now we might have had Ukraine on the way to joining the EU,” he says.
The price and collateral damage of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have been huge, he says.
“America’s focus on the war on terror and our [Europe’s] lack of focus allowed the conflict in Georgia. The Georgians had to pay the price.”
Lucas claims the battle being fought is one of ideas. “The West stands for ... political freedom, contested elections, rule of law and some kind of separation between business and politics. In Russia none of these apply.” Those who are running Russia also own up to it, he adds.
The manner in which the war against terror is being fought has resulted in increasing erosion of freedoms in the US and the United Kingdom.
Some fear a domineering society is not too far. “The danger is a situation in which Russia has adopted capitalism but we have given up democracy,” he says.
“We have to show we believe in our own ideas. One of the points I make in the book is that if we lose our moral authority, it will be catastrophic for our friends in Russia because they will no longer have anything on which they can base their arguments against the regime.”
On the response his book has evoked among Russians, Lucas says: “Some of them say they agree with every word while others think I have been too soft on a regime that is worse than I have described.
"There are those who think I am completely mad and others who say I am a paid agent of Israel or America or goodness knows who.”
Syed Hamad Ali is an independent writer based in London.
