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Washington: With time running out for the conclusion of an agreement governing American forces in Iraq, nervous negotiators have begun examining alternatives that would allow US troops to stay beyond the December 31 deadline, according to US and Iraqi officials.
Neither side finds the options attractive. One possibility is an extension of the United Nations mandate that expires at the end of the year. That would require a Security Council vote that both governments believe could be complicated by Russia or others opposed to the US-led war.
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Another alternative would amount to a simple handshake agreement between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki and President Bush to leave things as they are until a new deal, under a new US administration, can be negotiated.
Negotiators have been stuck for months on the question of legal jurisdiction over US troops and immunity for possible crimes. But even if the sides reach a deal in the next few days or weeks, it is not clear that a formal status-of-forces agreement could be approved by the end of the year.
Al Maliki has pledged to submit an accord to Iraq's divided parliament before he signs it - a promise he reaffirmed last week during a visit to Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq's most influential Shiite cleric. Sistani has said he will not endorse any document without the support of Iraq's population and political factions. If the parliament refuses, Maliki would have "no choice" but to request a UN extension "because the American forces will lose their legal cover on December 31," he told the Times of London in a weekend interview.
"If that happens, according to international law, Iraqi law and American law, the US forces will be confined to their bases and have to withdraw from Iraq," Al Maliki said.
Combat operations
US officials do not dispute that the absence of an agreement would probably require an immediate end to combat operations and, at a minimum, confinement to bases on January 1.
"I am actually reasonably optimistic we will come to closure on this in a very near future," Defence Secretary Robert M. Gates told reporters last Friday as he returned from a five-day trip to Europe.
A month earlier, on September 8, Gates told Congress that he expected an agreement "within the next few weeks." Iraqi Vice President Tariq Al Hashimi said on Monday that an accord is unlikely before the end of the year, citing the number of parties that must sign off on the deal.
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