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Dubai: Iranians voted on Thursday in parliamentary elections but its conclusion seems to many a foregone one: a tighter grip by conservatives.
The elections, analysts say, are also expected to lay the base for next year's presidential elections, in which President Ahmadinejad is expected to be one of the main candidates.
The chances of reformists winning many of the 290-seat-parliament dwindled after some 1,700 reform candidates were earlier excluded from running on the grounds of insufficient loyalty to Islam and Iran's revolution.
"Yes. The results of the elections seemed foregone conclusions," Dr Mahjoub Zweiri, Head of the Iranian Studies Unit at the University of Jordan, told Gulf News.
At the same time, the expected victory of the "traditional" conservatives "does not mean that they will be getting the vast majority of the seats," said Zweiri. "It won't be a vast majority for conservatives, nor a complete failure for reformists... I believe the spiritual leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini will play a role," in this regard to achieve some sort of "balance".
Khameini has the ultimate power and final say in all issues in the country, which faces at present several internal and external challenges, including a difficult economic situation and a crisis with the West over its nuclear programme.
The next parliament, "won't have one colour," says Zweiri.
The conservative trend in Iran, anaylsts and experts believe, has been divided into two groups: the new conservatives, which include the current President Ahmadinejad and all politicians who came to power after the 2004 parliamentary elections, and the traditional conservatives, which include mainly the clergymen and politicians who played a role in the 1979 Islamic revolution. New conservatives take more "balanced" positions than the traditional figures, anaylsts note.
Blow to reformists
In the outgoing parliament, conservatives filled nearly 220 seats, while the reformists had nearly 70.
"If the reformists win 10 fewer seats, it would be a big blow," Anoush Ehteshami, Head of School of Government and International Affairs at Durham University, told Gulf News.
Nearly 4,500 candidates are running for parliament's 290 seats in Friday's vote. Some 44 million Iranians are eligible for the vote.
While no surprises are expected during Friday's voting, analysts explained that ordinary Iranians seemed to lack the enthusiasm to turn out in high numbers.
Polls gave different expectations on Iranian voting. While one Western poll expected the majority not to vote, an Iranian poll said the opposite.
Anaylsts, meanwhile, said voter reaction came as a result of several factors, including losing confidence in the election process.
"The process of the elections is not transparent and open. The process is being directed," added Ehteshami.
Also, the failure to fulfill earlier campaign promises makes people less enthusiastic to participate, at a time when the economy is "always the main issue on people's minds," noted an analyst, in reference to high unemployment and inflation rates in the oil-rich country.
However, the reformist camp seems very zealous to participate, mainly because they want to be present in the coming elections.
"It [the reformist camp] doesn't want to be excluded from next year's [presidential] elections," said Ehteshami, who strongly believes that Friday's elections will constitute the "basis for how to begin [the next presidential] elections," which president Ahmadinejad will run in, he added.
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