Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's decision to leave office and refrain from running for leadership of the Kadima Party next September has given rise to speculations about the future of the peace process.
Whoever may inherit Olmert's position, whether it is one of the two Kadima ministers - Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz - or Ehud Barak of the Labour Party or Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu (in case of early elections), Olmert's resignation confirms the impossibility of achieving a final Palestinian-Israeli peace agreement before US President George W. Bush leaves office. This means that the "peace process" will be handed over to the new American administration.
As it does not seem possible for either Livni or Mofaz, the two rivals for the Kadima leadership, to form a stable new government, fresh elections seem unavoidable. The elections are likely to change the present political scene in the country totally.
Opinion polls give the Likud, the right-wing opposition party, a better chance of winning in early elections and bringing its leader, Netanyahu, to the prime minister's office. Opinion polls also indicate that Barak enjoys little popularity, despite his long security experience. This is because of his failure in past negotiations with both the Palestinians and the Syrians.
Israelis think Livni, who seems to be having a better chance of bagging the Kadima leadership, is an honest and moderate woman. Still, like others, she does not enjoy overwhelming support in her party. She has declared her wish to form a coalition government that includes the Likud.
The extremists in Kadima consider Livni to be too moderate on the peace process with the Palestinians. She is also seen as being in favour of improving the Palestinians' living conditions in the West Bank. However, she has repeated her calls for continuing the fight against "terrorism" and blockading the Gaza Strip (controlled by Hamas).
Coalition government
Mofaz, on the other hand, who has also expressed his wish to form a coalition government that includes the Likud, is always ready to go to war, taking an extremist approach towards the Palestinians. In the past, he has openly criticised the Oslo Accords, describing them as "the worst mistake committed by Israel".
When he was the chief of staff, he ordered the Israeli army to sweep into Jenin in the biggest military campaign since 1967. Lately, Mofaz flagged off his campaign for the Kadima leadership in front of the Wailing Wall in Occupied Jerusalem, obviously trying to placate the right-wing parties, particularly the religious extremists in Shas.
He also confirmed his stance regarding his refusal to withdraw from Occupied Jerusalem, which he vows to retain as the "undivided and eternal capital of Israel".
Netanyahu, a right-wing hawk who dreams of reviving his Likud Party and returning to the post of prime minister, has called for early elections. He has been working towards making Israelis forget his party's defeat in the March 2006 elections, the worst defeat in Likud's history.
Netanyahu is trying to take advantage of the July 2006 Israeli military defeat in Lebanon. Being in favour of a public referendum on a possible withdrawal from the West Bank, he refuses to have Jerusalem "divided", or to accept "compromises".
According to an opinion poll conducted by a private station, Netanyahu's chances of winning are 36 per cent, compared to Livni's 24.6 per cent only. Barak's popularity did not exceed 14.9 per cent.
Whoever may take Olmert's post, be it Livni, Mofaz or Netanyahu, that person will not be less violent or less bloody than the previous leaders of past Israeli governments. All of them, with slight differences, are against making real peace.
They are all even against achieving a "historical settlement", and support a continuing occupation, albeit in a different style. They are all in favour of accelerating the building of colonies and turning Jerusalem into a Jewish city.
Palestinians need to fix their grim internal situation. Moreover, their negotiation policies have to be revised in the light of wicked Israeli means that are aimed at buying more time to continue the "process" of "changing facts" on the grounds - through increased Judaisation of Palestinian land.
Professor As'ad Abdul Rahman is the Chairman of the Palestinian Encyclopedia.
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