By all accounts, the Israeli-Syrian indirect negotiations through Turkish mediation are going well, and the fact that a fourth round of talks is scheduled for the end of July suggests both sides expect to make further progress.
The reports from Damascus and Ankara, however, indicating that Syria will not enter into direct negotiations with Israel before the advent of new US administration show an obstructive apprehension on the part of the Syrian government. Indeed, Damascus should not only agree to direct negotiations with Israel - as Turkish officials strongly recommend - but time has come for it to make a bold move towards the Israelis. A high level meeting, for example, between Israel and Syria can change overnight the dynamic of their negotiations and dramatically increase the Bush administration's stakes in its successful outcome.
Syrian President Bashar Al Assad's effort to write off the Bush administration, however antagonistic it may be towards Damascus, is ultimately a mistake because it fails to take into account what Bush's attitude would be toward the prospect of an Israeli-Syrian peace under his watch. Bashar knows that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert would not have entered any negotiations, directly or indirectly without, at a minimum, the acquiescence of the Bush administration.
Having failed to demonstrate a clear-cut foreign policy achievement in Iraq, Iran or with the Palestinians, Bush is more than eager to capitalise on any potential breakthrough that may come his way during his waning days in the White House. Having just returned from an extended visit to Turkey and Israel where I met with officials from both sides, the sentiment is clear: while the negotiations are going well, something dramatic and bold is needed to secure the durability of the negotiations and ensure a successful outcome. We know that Israel and Syria have a clear understanding of each others requirements to make peace. Otherwise, Syria in particular, would have not entered into any peace talks, let alone made them public.
Despite the White House statements indicating that the US will not participate in talks with Syria, reaching an agreement between Israel and Syria will have a dramatically positive ripple effect throughout the Middle East. It will improve the conditions in Iraq, help to undermine Iran, weaken Hamas and give Lebanon breathing room to achieve political stability.
Israel's potential
This is what the Bush administration wants and needs more than ever at this time. Now that Israel has the potential to open Washington's door for Damascus, Bashar has a golden opportunity to capitalise on Bush's desire to claim one important foreign policy achievement, all while enhancing his own international standing.
Moreover, regardless of who is the next President of the United States, Barack Obama or John McCain, they will feel politically and morally inclined to engage Syria directly which is precisely what Damascus wants. If Bush can help broker an agreement even in principle between the two countries, it will drastically influence the decisions the next US administration will have to make in the Middle East. The upcoming Mediterranean Union Partnership conference held in Paris under the auspices of the French government offers Bashar a momentous opportunity to achieve an historic breakthrough. He must seize it.
A bold move by Syria will also have an incredibly wide appeal throughout Israel. For one thing, most Israelis remain sceptical about Syria's ultimate intentions. They are looking for a credible gesture that only a bold move such as an official meeting between Olmert and Bashar could validate. Moreover, Olmert is politically beleaguered and he may not survive but a few more months in office.
What such a gesture can accomplish will transcend Olmert's tenure in office as it will shift the Israeli public opinion which currently favours keeping the Golan Heights as a measure of safety. Regardless of who may succeed Olmert - including the Likud's party leader Netanyahu who opposes the return of land - the public will be on the side of peace-making, even in exchange for the Golan Heights, and will demand the continuation of the peace process.
Many Syrians received with satisfaction the news about the Israeli-Syrian peace talks and understand the critical value of normalising relations with the US.
What Damascus needs to understand is that for Bush and Olmert, time is of the essence. Assad must therefore act with deliberation and do every thing in his power to seize a unique opportunity consistent with his bold move to make the Israeli-Syrian peace negotiations public.
Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Centre for Global Affairs at New York University. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.
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