The Lebanese have been living without a president for 45 days! And unless a miracle happens today at the Arab League's emergency meeting in Cairo, there is no hope that the stopwatch ticking since president Emile Lahoud left the Baabda Palace on November 23 will stop any time soon, ending the country's most serious political crisis since the 1975-1990 civil war.
Last week, the Arab league Secretary General Amr Mousa called for an urgent meeting. The foreign ministers of the member states of the council are supposed to discuss today how to resolve the deadlock in Lebanon, so that a new president for the country can be elected.
In my opinion, the days of miracles in the Middle East are long gone. Lebanon might become the only country in the world that can live without a president for months or even years to come, thanks to the veteran politicians and chiefs of the country's 17 sects, who are used to managing their internal affairs without any government help.
The Lebanese, however, did not miss much by not having a president during the past one and half months. Political life in the country has been in dire straits since the assassination of former prime minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005. Lahoud, whose extended tenure expired on November 22, 2007 had done practically nothing since the political bloc of Sa'ad Hariri won the parliamentary election in May 2005.
But, what makes the situation today more critical than what it has been for the past two years? The answer to this question is: things are deteriorating swiftly in Lebanon and in a dangerous way.
In a 3-hour interview on January 2, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned that the opposition would take (unspecified) action if no agreement was reached on a package solution his bloc was demanding.
He set a deadline of one week to a maximum of ten days. The ruling bloc might have a counter plan which will turn the streets into arenas of confrontation.
Political chaos at this stage in Lebanon is very risky. It will have disastrous consequences on the country and severely impact the people because of the growing tension amongst the different parties in the past two years.
Memories of the civil war are still fresh in the minds of all Lebanese. No one in the country can claim control over a volatile situation that exists today. Lebanon might slide into chaos at any moment. This, especially after France called off its initiative, which was aimed at resolving the political stalemate in the country through cooperation with Syria.
Deadlock
In December 2006, the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri, while addressing a press conference in Beirut, said that the political deadlock in Lebanon was like a four-storey building. He said Lebanese were occupying its first floor, regional players the second and Arabs controlled the third floor. The top floor of the building, he said, was meant for international players.
In a letter to the Arab League recently, Berri said the Lebanese will elect a new president once the Arabs agree to settle their disagreements.
In other words, the speaker, who had been negotiating a settlement on behalf of the opposition till last month, is now convinced that the differences between Saudi Arabia and Syria are preventing the Lebanese from electing a new president
Leaks from the Arab League suggest the ministers will discuss a fresh Egyptian-Saudi plan to resolve the political crisis in the country and to ensure the concerns of different political parties in the country are addressed through a win-win deal.
Win-win deal
Mousa has been talking about win-win deal since December 2006, when he himself initiated a bid to form a national unity government after the withdrawal of Shite ministers from the government of Fouad Siniora.
Today, no one seems to have the same level of optimism about a win-win solution that Mousa had two years ago. Arab ministers meeting today have no ready-made solution for Lebanon.
The Arab League must be transparent with its members today. Mousa should inform the ministers that neither Saudi Arabia nor Egypt have sufficient influence on opposing parties in Lebanon and unless Syria joins hands, any proposal will fail.
If Arabs fail to find a solution today, then the task of helping elect a president for the country will fall into the hands of the international players. And then, no one can guarantee that the solution would be in favour of the Lebanese and Arabs.
