Islamabad: Hopes for democracy and political stability in the country are pinned on Monday's general election, coming as it does after the six-week postponement in January following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
Many in the country are, however, deeply sceptical about the fate of the polls, what with the precarious security environment, the sharp political polarisation and a crescendo of allegations by mainstream opposition parties that the vote may be stolen.
The New Year has been marked by a deadly suicide bombing in Lahore and a bombing in Karachi, amid ongoing military operations to subdue powerful militants in the northwestern tribal areas and Swat valley. The December 27 assassination of Bhutto, two-time prime minister and chairperson of the Pakistan Peoples Party, the largest in the country, has scarred hearts and minds.
Ethnic anger
Ethnic anger permeates the native Sindhi-speaking populace in Bhutto's home province of Sindh which was rocked by bloody riots for three days after her murder at Rawalpindi in Punjab, leaving a trail of destruction and scores dead.
The PPP is staying the electoral course under protest, vowing to "take revenge through the ballot" under newly chosen co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari, while his son and party chairman Bilawal Bhutto is back at Oxford to complete his studies before plunging into active politics when he comes of age.
Former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, now the most prominent political leader after the tragic disappearance of Bhutto from the scene, reversed his poll-boycott decision on Zar-dari's persuasion, though he and his Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) rule out a fair election under President Pervez Musharraf.
Sharif continues to demand that Musharraf step down and a government of national consensus take over the reins to hold the election for smooth transition to genuine democratic rule free from the tutelage of the military.
Advocating a boycott
Several components of the All Parties Democratic Movement, weakened by Sharif's parting of ways with the grouping, have stayed out of the race. The Jamaat-e-Islami of Qazi Hussain Ahmad and cricket legend Imran Khan's Tehreek-e-Insaaf party are spearheading their campaign to mobilise people to boycott the vote.
Analysts say Musharraf's future as civilian president for five years after his controversial October 6 re-election heavily boycotted by the opposition depends on his political allies winning majority in the next parliament.
For that to happen, the formerly ruling PML-Q led by Shujaat Hussain and his cousin and former chief minister Pervaiz Elahi has to outvote rivals in Punjab, which has the largest quota of seats in the 342-member national assembly.
Perceptible shift
"In the aftermath of Bhutto's assassination there is a perceptible shift of opinion in favour of the PPP and PML-N that is likely to make it difficult for the pro-Musharraf party to win enough seats to sustain the ex-general's rule for five years," political analyst Hasan Askari told Gulf News.
A former head of the political science department at the Punjab University in Lahore, Askari said a hostile parliament could create serious problems for Musharraf.
Even in it's hey days, the party created by Musharraf could not muster enough seats in the 2002 election and had to engineer desertions from Bhutto's PPP to be able to form a coalition government.
The two mainstream opposition parties are not buying the retired general's repeated assurances of a clean election and continue to dangle the threat of a massive agitation in the event of any electoral manipulation.
Lawyers continues to remain in agitation mode and has held regular protests since Musharraf fired scores of judges on November 3 after imposing emergency rule. The emergency was revoked in December under intense international pressure.
Conscious of the likely repercussions, Musharraf has warned he would not brook any disruption before or after the polls and use all means, including the army, to maintain order. On the one hand the spectre of insecurity is mounting and, on the other, there is every possibility of disputes erupting once the poll results are out. "The country appears heading towards a deeper crisis," noted one analyst.
