Next week's parliamentary elections in Pakistan are proving to be yet another moment of challenge for the south Asian country's turmoil ridden economy.
While the government working under president Pervez Musharraf still claims success in stabilising the economy, the reality of Pakistan remains that of a country where chaos is indeed mounting.
Since the financial year began in July last year, the political temptation for the government has proven too strong to avoid financial indiscipline. The objective has been the need for meeting the demands from political sympathisers of the Pakistan Muslim League- Quaid e Azam (PML-Q) group, the party which has ruled Pakistan since 2002.
It is not surprising that the government of former prime minister Shaukat Aziz and the present-day administration of prime minister Mohammad Mian Soomro have both avoided tough measures. These include issues such as refusing to raise the price of domestic oil - a policy that has forced the government to accept subsidising the difference between oil imports at fast mounting international costs and domestic prices.
While Pakistan's central bank repeatedly warned against the effects of an economic slowdown, the administrations refused to respond in ways that would bring in significant belt tightening so that the budget deficit remained well within control.
Politically, the government's strategy made sense. Going into elections after the recent flour shortages and an unprecedented shortage of electricity, popular opinion has squarely turned against Musharraf and his backers.
The aggravating law and order situation has not helped the government's standing. The murder of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in December unleashed a wave of anti-government feelings across Pakistan. While political factors have come to dominate the picture, the government under Musharraf also has much to answer for by way of the fallout from events in these past nine years since the president seized power in a bloodless coup. The set of reforms often claimed by the pro-Musharraf leaders have left behind huge gaps.
One big such gap is indeed the failure to clamp down hard enough to widespread tax evasion across Pakistan - a major challenge for the economy. Less than one per cent of Pakistan's population of about 165 million pay income tax, which is a proportion that remains unchanged from the days preceding Musharraf's rule.
While much has been done by way of lip service to tax reforms, the actual picture today suggests that most of Pakistan's prospective tax payers remain outside the tax net.
Other areas by way of gaps include the failure to lift the quality of social services such as institutions dedicated to the provision of healthcare and education. While such facilities run by private entrepreneurs have flourished in Pakistan, those run by the government still provide more or less the same quality of services as they did on the eve of Musharraf taking charge of the country.
With the rich becoming richer and the poor remaining more or less where they were, Pakistan's economic outlook ahead of its elections, has become a significant political challenge for Musharraf and those who support him. The elections are an opportunity for Pakistan's masses to go out and vote with their hearts. If past elections provide any indication, they can throw up unexpected consequences. This time around, the Pakistani economy will be on top of the minds of voters as the election day nears.
- The writer is a journalist based in Pakistan.
