Nairobi: As the smoke rose from Nairobi slums and ethnic rivals across Kenya sharpened their machetes, Raila Odinga issued a chilling warning.
"Look at Ivory Coast, the most peaceful country in west Africa, then one little mistake and look where it is now," the opposition firebrand said, as Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent president declared victory in the most divisive election in Kenya's history.
The parallels are alarming, the more so since the man to spell them out will play a significant role in determining whether Kenya falls apart as Ivory Coast did before it.
Civil war
Like the Ivorians before civil war broke out in 2002, Kenyans have prided themselves on a record for relative stability in a region otherwise peppered with failing states and conflict.
Ivory Coast's war was caused by a potent blend of economic crisis and the manipulation of ethnic and regional identity by politicians. The spark, however, was a flawed election, which split the loyalties of the army and ultimately the country in two.
Kenya is not there yet. Its army has a better record as an institution and has traditionally stayed out of politics. But with ethnic killings proliferating on the back of an election victory widely viewed as stolen and rival politicians engaging in brinkmanship, the ingredients for a worsening crisis are there. The Nation, Kenya's leading newspaper, said the country was "on the verge of complete meltdown".
"The same polarisation that Kibaki's style of government has led to in wider society is reflected in the military as well," said a former government official. "It is not a given that their intervention would be benign."
Kibaki was first swept to power on a wave of public euphoria in 2002 elections, promising an end to the venal politics of Daniel Arap Moi, his predecessor. But the fruits of economic growth have since been unevenly spread and many Kenyans believe he has served the interests of his Kikuyu tribe at the expense of others.
The drubbing his party received in parallel parliamentary elections last week, in which many members of his Cabinet were ejected, reflected the depth of disenchantment. The Kikuyus are the largest of more than 40 ethnic groups and have traditionally been dominant in business. But their presence among the foot soldiers of Kenya's army is weak.
If, as many analysts in Kenya are predicting, the only way for Kibaki to enforce his authority in the absence of a legitimate mandate is to crush dissent, the loyalty of the security forces would become crucial.
Concern
Maina Kiai, chairman of the Kenyan National commission on Human rights, said: "If Kibaki insists on staying, I don't see how else he'll govern this country other than with a heavy hand."
The focus of immediate concern over the past three days has been in the rivalry between Odinga's Luo tribe, who believe their man won the vote, and the Kikuyus. But reports of worsening violence illustrate the extent to which Kibaki's rule has exacerbated Kenya's many tribal divisions, isolating in the process his fellow Kikuyus.
