Sabre-rattling by Israel and the United States and threats of retaliation by Iran have created havoc in the world financial markets. The already fragile economic conditions have worsened all over the globe. Fear and turmoil sent the American stock exchange to new lows not seen since the 1950's. The price of a barrel of oil moved past the $140 mark. The level of hardship and misery was felt in every continent and every country around the world. The horror of the outbreak of violence should not be downplayed. Just the threat of war could have a detrimental effect causing flight of capital away from the Gulf and dislocating its economies.
Now the stage is set. The chain of events in the past few days could lead to an all-out war that will cause immeasurable devastation in the Middle East and could spread worldwide. The Gulf region could be the biggest loser if war does break out between Iran and Israel. Such a confrontation could put an end to the incredible progress and growth that have characterised the Gulf economies.
The Iran of 2008 is not like the Iraq of 1981. Israel was able to destroy the Osirak nuclear reactor in Baghdad in 1981 without fear of retaliation. If Israel pulls the trigger against Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor and other targets inside Iran, the latter has enough capabilities and willingness to use them that could usher an all out war. This will for sure bring the US into the conflict. Iran could attack American forces in Iraq, possibly with the help of the Shiite-led Iraqi forces, which the US has trained!
Syria, that has defence treaties with Iran, and Hezbollah, that is trained, armed and financed by Iran, will join in the all out war against Israel from the north and northeast. And all hell will break loose!
Jordan and Egypt may be forced into the melee by the sheer outrage on the streets in both countries. The repercussions are enormous to the whole world, even without speculating on what Russia and China will do. We may very well be on the threshold of World War Three, with catastrophic results and unlimited destruction. It behooves both sides to not downplay the terrible effects their war will bring.
Increased tensions
Instead of contributing to the increased tensions, the US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, should be cautioning Israel against attacking Iran. We should be seriously pursuing a diplomatic solution. War is not the answer. A negotiated settlement is the best way to defuse this crisis. The horror that will befall the Gulf and the Middle East and the whole world is immeasurable.
Iran, on the other hand, must stop the inflammatory rhetoric and the unnecessary threats against Israel. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad does not help the Palestinians' cause by denying the Holocaust.
The Arabs in general and the Palestinians in particular showed remorse for the Jews when the Nazis were liquidating them. Moreover, Palestine was a refuge for those Jews. (This fact was shared with Ahmadinejad by myself and three of my colleagues, all members of the Universal Peace Federation, when we met with the President last September 19, in New York).
Iran must also realise that it cannot close the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 40 per cent of the world's crude oil passes, without losing whatever support it may enjoy with the nations of the region.
Most importantly, Iran's navy is no match to the US 5th Fleet which, I am sure, would do whatever is necessary to keep the oil flowing out of the Gulf.
Operation Ernest Will, in 1987- 89 showed the overwhelming superiority of the the US Navy when it protected the reflagged Kuwaiti tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran would be wise and prudent to cooperate with the international community. And the sooner, the better.
Neither Israel nor Iran can afford a war. Both should realise that things may go out of hand resulting in unforseen repercussions to both. America, also, must learn from the lessons of Iraq. Cool heads I hope will prevail on all sides and this dangerous scenario will come to a peaceful conclusion.
It behooves us all to remember the words of president Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Supreme Commander of the Allied Forces in the Second World War. He said: "I hate war as only a soldier who has lived it can, only as one who has seen its brutality, its futility, its stupidity".
Sam Zakhem is a career diplomat and a former US ambassador to Bahrain. He writes on American foreign policy.
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