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The $2 million classic on Dubai World Cup night, the UAE Derby (Gr 2), has often been a good race for favourite backers.
Saturday night , we will see Mike de Kock's duo at the head of the betting market, but this race may not be quite that simple to solve. If you firmly believe in an exacta filled by Royal Vintage and his stable companion Honour Devil then fine and good luck to you - but if you lose, don't tell us you were not warned. This Derby can easily throw up the surprise of the day.
Strike The Deal is well worth taking a chance on here, as the home team may not be as high class as some seem to believe. He is within striking range of the two runners from Mike de Kock, as well as the dual classic winning filly Cocoa Beach. She has been visually impressive in landing the 1 000 Guineas / Oaks double here at Nad Al Sheba and looks sure to go well again. Also, she will stay the distance really well - and that is going to be big plus. Princess Haya's new star must have a winning chance.
The English-trained colt Strike The Deal is still our selection - and not just because his bigger odds makes him a tempting betting proposition. He ran so well (and looked so well) in the Middle Park Stakes (Gr 1) at Newmarket last autumn, when narrowly beaten by Dark Dark Angel. That may not have been a vintage renewal of the Middle Park but Strike The Deal's game finish made us go for him in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf at Monmouth Park three weeks later. Rain ruined his chances there, as he is not effective on soft ground. So it was a creditable effort to check in fourth, just 2-and-a-half lengths behind Nownownow. Achill Island, who had been second in the Royal Lodge Stakes (Gr 2) at Ascot, finished second, and the consistent US stakes runner, Cannonball, was third, giving the form a solid look. Jeremy Noseda, who trains Strike The Deal, has saddled 10 winners at Nad Al Sheba and he could well add to that on tonight.
Royal Vintage proved that he stays better than his stable companion Honour Devil when they ran first and second in the Al Bastakiya over this distance on Super Thursday, but the latter was more in need of experience and it is difficult to separate the two. The Doug Watson-trained Rock Ascot is the one who could spring a serious surprise. His form is hard to assess, but he is a classy runner and he is certainly capable of improving.
Massive Drama has performed well against some of the best of his generation in California, but he has also revealed serious stamina limitations - meaning that only a slow early pace can give him a winning chance.
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