There is a saying in Punjab: "The villages have not yet taken roots but the claimants have already come." The proverb came to my mind when I read that Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif were disputing who should be the prime minister first.
The dispute is unfortunate. Even a small tiff between them can cast a shadow on their joint resolve to re-establish democracy in Pakistan, sans the military.
Only last year did they show solidarity and sign together the Charter of Democracy. They declared that "only the people and no one else have the sovereign right to govern through their elected representatives". The question who should be the prime minister can arise only after elections when the Pakistanis get back their democratic right to rule themselves.
Sharif's spokesman has a point when he says: It is for the people of Pakistan to decide who will govern after free and fair elections. True, this is what democracy demands. Yet, the fact remains that Sharif offered prime ministership to Benazir if and when elections were held in Pakistan.
When I interviewed Sharif in Jeddah a couple of years ago, he told me that he rang Benazir to request her to be the prime minister first. "I am young and have all the time to wait," were his exact words. Checking with Benazir in Dubai a few months later, I found that he had telephoned her to make the offer: "You become prime minister first."
Both live outside Pakistan since the advent of President General Parvez Musharraf's rule and cannot return without his consent. Both have wide support in Pakistan, Benazir leading the largest Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Sharif the Muslim League, part of which has been gobbled up by Musharraf.
Both have had ups and downs in popularity but their relevance to Pakistan's polity has seldom been questioned.
Were they to come back even today, they would sweep the polls, provided elections were free and fair. Benazir looks like winning in Sind and Sharif in Punjab.
The NWFP and Balochistan may go mainly to the combination of religious parties, with Benazir claiming some seats. But in the present conditions in Pakistan, it is futile to debate who would be the next prime minister. Many important matters remain to be settled yet.
No free polls
The first and the foremost is whether Musharraf would give up his uniform before holding elections and whether the intelligence agencies and the military would hold free and fair elections. Yet, if the election machinery stays as it is there is no way that Pakistan can have free and fair polls.
The entire set-up is reeking with such people who have perfected the art of manipulating elections, from the preparation of bogus electoral rolls to the declaration of unelected candidates elected.
Things can be retrieved if the Election Commission is reconstituted to include one lawyer and one NGO enjoying credibility. Foreign observers can never detect the finesse with which the army and the intelligence agencies manage the polls.
The return of Benazir may make some difference because her effort would be to ensure the sanctity of ballot box. However, it looks as if Benazir is in the midst of a settlement with Musharraf on power sharing. He may not have to drop the uniform straightaway but would do so subsequently.
It is possible that America has brokered the deal because it wants both of them, Benazir and Musharraf, "liberal political forces", to jointly run the affairs of Pakistan. How cold-blooded is Washington in its calculation to tow democracy and dictatorship together!
On the other hand, the long wilderness has convinced Benazir that she cannot return to power without a deal with Mush-arraf. True, his image is damaged beyond repair.
The lawyers' agitation has cut into his standing in the class which, although unhappy, did not revolt against him. What helps Musharraf is that political parties have practically kept away from the agitation. They are supportive of it. But they have not shoved their cadre into the fire. For this, Benazir has to be blamed.
Political parties are not sure how she, the key person, would play her cards. Whenever there is a move to get all parties on a single platform to support the lawyers' agitation, the PPP has dragged its feet. Probably, Benazir believes that by doing so, she may make Musharraf's exit certain but not her prime ministership.
Formidable
What she is not reckoning is the damage she is doing to her party. Once people see her joining hands with Musharraf, her popularity may take a nosedive. An Army-PPP tie-up may be formidable but it will ruin the reputation of the PPP which is still considered an anti-establishment force.
Still, Sharif would be ill-advised to go to town to denounce the Benazir-Mush-arraf settlement. However indigestible, this could be the way to break the logjam, particularly when Musharraf continues to be the darling of the West.
Sharif should not underestimate the strength of the extremists who are gaining ground in Pakistan. The restoration of democracy, even though not fully, will weaken extremists.
At one time I thought Musharraf would go, but not the army. Now it looks as if both are staying for the time being with, of course, reduced powers.
It cannot be helped because Benazir wants to return soon. She is worried about Pakistan going the wrong way unless the people's exasperation with the military is politically directed. She may be right.
Kuldip Nayar is a former Indian High Commissioner to the UK and a former Rajya Sabha MP.
