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It seems almost impossible to open a newspaper or magazine in Dubai these days without reading about the latest real estate market report and its findings, which often seem to predict a downward turn or, even worse, market crash here in the near future.
For four or five years now there have been a number of reports questioning the status and longevity of Dubai's real estate boom, with findings suggesting that it has just about peaked, that oversupply is around the corner, that prices are too high and that the number of properties under construction is unnecessarily high and therefore saturation is pending.
These reports are based on a range of information, from current activity both in terms of construction and purchases, but also using data from other international markets and backed by historical trends. By looking back at how other similar markets have performed at this stage of their life cycle and what happened to them after such a large growth spurt, analysts estimate the future of the Dubai market.
There is the principal that anything that goes up must eventually come down, and the supporting evidence that real estate bubbles inevitably burst backs this theory. For many, the question with Dubai is when this will happen, rather than if.
Underlying facts
While it is good to question the sustainability of any fast growing market, in doing so there are often underlying facts that cannot be ignored. There were some who voiced concerns about the stability of several global markets in 2000, yet many of them are still fairing well.
The reality is that over the years predictions about the Dubai market have continued to prove unfounded. In fact, the emirate has become something of an enigma and is proving to be a particularly tricky market to predict.
There are some clear reasons for this, including, the fact that with the ongoing construction delays we are experiencing, the supply is taking longer than predicted to even out. At the same time, the population and demand for property has continued to rise.
On a completely different note, there is also the element to the reports that sometimes create a feeling that they have been written in a way that provides the commissioner with the answers that they want to hear and are in effect, paying for, rather than hard solid facts.
No sense of panic
This is not to say that all report findings are right or wrong, and I definitely don't have all the answers. What I can say is that in my day-to-day dealings in this market and from speaking to my colleagues at the ground level, and contrary to what recent reports have suggested, any sense of panic or slowdown has not reached them.
In fact, one property consultant with whom I recently had a conversation told me how overwhelmed she and her colleagues are with enquiries, suggesting that the volume of business from both investors and end users remains at an all time high.
Only time will tell whether the reports prove to be correct or if we will see the Dubai market continue to throw up surprises and break all the rules as has so often been the case.
The writer is managing director of Better Homes.
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