According to The Independent, the Bush administration is seeking to sign a security agreement with the Iraqi government by the end of next month. The so-called "strategic alliance" gives the US permanent military bases, control of Iraqi airspace and the right to pursue its "war on terror" inside Iraq without consultation with the Iraqi government. The treaty also guarantees legal immunity for all American soldiers and contractors and gives the US military a free hand to arrest anybody it wants.
The clauses of the agreement, which have been kept secret - fearing civil unrest - would enable US President George W. Bush to achieve two key objectives: on the one hand, if he manages to push the deal through, he could declare a military victory and claim his 2003 invasion has been vindicated. On the other hand, by perpetuating the US presence in Iraq, the long-term settlement would undercut pledges by the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, to withdraw US troops if he is elected president in November. The timing of the agreement would also boost the Republican candidate, John McCain, who has claimed the US is on the verge of victory in Iraq - a victory that he says Obama would throw away by a premature military withdrawal.
More important, perhaps, the proposed agreement confirms speculations that the US policy in Iraq has been pursued from the very beginning to justify a permanent military presence in the country. Dissolving the Iraqi army, de-Baathification and dismantling the institutions of the Iraqi state were meant to weaken Iraq and make it dependent on the US for security and protection indefinitely. It also explains why the Bush administration did not have an exit strategy since there was no intention to exit Iraq in the first place.
Bush's determination to force the Iraqi government to sign the agreement quickly and without modifications is meant also to serve the other pillar of US strategy in Iraq; that is maintaining hegemony over Iraqi oil. Iraq, according to many estimates, has 115 billion barrels of known oil reserves. Other estimates put the figure at 300 billion. If these estimates are anywhere close to the mark, US forces are now sitting on one quarter of the world's oil resources.
Retain control
One of General David Petraeus's "benchmarks" for the Iraqi government has been the passage of the oil and gas law. The draft law that the US has written for the Iraqi National Assembly would cede nearly all the oil to Western companies. The Iraq National Oil Company would retain control of 17 of Iraq's 80 existing oilfields, leaving the rest - including all yet to be discovered oil - under foreign corporate control for 30 years. The Bush administration presses the Iraqi parliament to pass the law before the next year's national elections, which is likely to change the composition of the Iraqi parliament.
Maintaining hegemony over Iraqi oil justifies the establishment of permanent military bases in Iraq. The New York Times revealed that five self-sufficient "super-bases" are in various stages of completion; each can accommodate between 10,000 and 20,000 troops. All are well away from the urban areas where most casualties have occurred.
A weak federal government in Baghdad, propped up and overseen by the US military, is necessary hence for the completion of this scenario. US forces will occasionally leave their bases to tamp down civil skirmishes, at a declining cost in casualties. Their main day-to-day function will be however to protect the oil infrastructure.
The proposed security agreement has angered key segments of Iraqi society, including Washington's closest allies. Yet, if the Bush administration manages to push it through, Iraq will end up as an American protectorate for the next few decades - a necessary condition for the extraction of its oil wealth.
Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.
