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Baghdad: US military officials in Baghdad are increasingly envisioning a "post-occupation" troop presence in Iraq that neither maintains current levels nor leads to a complete pullout, but aims for a smaller, longer-term force that would remain in the country for years.
This goal, drawn from recent interviews with more than 20 US military officers and other officials in Iraq, including senior commanders, strategists and analysts, remains in the early planning stages.
It is based on officials' assessment that a sharp drawdown of troops is likely to begin by the middle of next year, with roughly two-thirds of the current force of 150,000 moving out by late 2008 or early 2009. The questions officials are grappling with are not whether the US presence will be cut, but how quickly, to what level and to what purpose.
Conditions
One of the guiding principles, according to two officials in Baghdad, is the US should leave more intelligently than it entered. Military officials, many of whom would be interviewed only on the condition of anonymity, say they are now assessing conditions more realistically, rejecting the "steady progress" mantra of their predecessors and recognising short-term political reconciliation in Iraq is unlikely.
A reduction of troops, some officials argue, would demonstrate to anti-American factions that the occupation will not last forever while reassuring Iraqi allies the US does not intend to abandon the country.
The planning is shaped in part by logistical realities in Iraq. The immediate all-or-nothing debate in Washington over troop levels represents a false dilemma, some military officials said. Even if a total pullout is the goal, it could take a year to execute a full withdrawal. One official estimated that with only one major route from the country - through southern Iraq to Kuwait - it would take at least 3,000 large convoys some 10 months to remove US military gear and personnel alone, not including the several thousand combat vehicles that would be needed to protect such an operation.
"We're not going to go from where we're at now to zero overnight," said Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, the US commander for day-to-day operations in Iraq.
US officials also calculate that underneath the anti-American rhetoric, even Shiite radicals such as cleric Moqtada Al Sadr don't really want to see a total US pullout. Also, officials think any Iraqi government will prefer to keep a small US combat force to deter foreign intervention.
Courses
The thinking behind this "post-occupation" force, as one official called it, echoes the core conclusion of a Joint Chiefs of Staff planning group that last autumn secretly considered three possible courses in Iraq, which it categorised as "go big," "go home" and "go long." The group's recommendation to reshape the US presence in order to "go long" - to remain in Iraq for years with a smaller force - appears to carry weight in Baghdad, where some of the colonels who led that planning group have been working for Army General David Petraeus, the top US commander in Iraq since February.
New strategy to comprise four main components
A long-term presence would have four major components. The centrepiece would be a reinforced mechanised infantry division of 20,000 soldiers assigned to guarantee the security of the Iraqi government and to assist Iraqi forces or their US advisers if they get into fights they can't handle.
Second, a training and advisory force of close to 10,000 troops would work with Iraqi military and police units. "I think it would be very helpful to have a force here for a period of time to continue to help the Iraqis train and continue to build their capabilities," Odierno said.
In addition, officials envision a small but significant Special Operations unit focused on fighting Al Qaida in Iraq. "I think you'll retain a very robust counterterror capability in this country for a long, long time," a Pentagon official in Iraq said.
Finally, the headquarters and logistical elements to command and supply such a force would total more than 10,000 troops, plus some civilian contractors.
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