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Dubai: UAE bird flu experts expect more than 5,000 deaths out of 1.5 million cases should the disease become easily transmitted between humans, due to the country's urban society and its high-density population.
The World Bank and the World Health Organisation (WHO) have estimated that the zoonotic disease would infect up to 35 per cent of the country's population if it mutated enough to cause the next flu pandemic.
The virulent H5N1 virus is currently spread through direct contact with infected birds, and not from human to human.
Dr Maan Ahmad, assistant scientist with the Environment Agency in Abu Dhabi and part of the National Committee for Emergency Response to Bird Flu, told Gulf News that demographic factors affect the infection forecast.
"We have calculated the different infectious rates for the disease, but the most likely for the UAE is 35 per cent," he said.
"We have a high population living in urban areas, which means they are in close contact with each other, and we have a high population of workers who live in cramped conditions," he added.
Worst case scenario
According to the UAE Bird Flu Committee projections, 1,512,000 people out of the 4,320,000 UAE population would be infected. Out of these, up to 5,805 people would die if nothing is done.
Dr Ahmad, who presented these figures during a World Health Day talk to officials from the Health Ministry, Abu Dhabi Health Authority (AD-HA) and Dubai Department of Health and Medical Services (Dohms), stressed that the numbers represented worst case scenarios, showing what would happen if there were no preventive and response plans in place.
"We must be prepared. Remember, we will only have one month from Phase 4 [when human bird flu cases occur in small clusters and mutates] to Phase 6 [when human-to-human transmission occurs]," he warned.
Companies: Action plan to protect workers
The UAE Bird Flu Committee is working on an action plan for companies to protect their workers from the deadly disease.
"Each company should have a plan to reduce transmission and we're working on that. We're working on a model for them," said Dr Maan Ahmad, assistant scientist with the Environmental Agency of Abu Dhabi.
He said the action plan model should not take longer than a few months.
- Nina Muslim, Staff Reporter
RAK live poultry shops to be shut
Ras Al Khaimah: The Bird Flu Committee here yesterday banned the issuance and renewal of licences of live poultry shops.
Mubarak Ali Al Shamsi, head of the committee, said authorities would not issue licences for live poultry shops and expired licences would not be renewed. The move is aimed at shutting down all live poultry shops, he said, speaking during a meeting yesterday.
The committee will urge all poultry companies in the emirate to increase their products to meet local needs.
He said the committee ordered the emirate's exit points, including the ports and the airports, to ban all types of poultry and birds from entering the UAE.
Al Shamsi said the poultry farms would be scanned once again to ensure that they were free from the bird flu virus.
- Nasouh Nazzal, Staff Reporter
Your comments
I stopped eating chicken more than four years ago for fear of bird flu. I am now I am happily living on fish and vegetables.
Mohd
Dubai,UAE
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