Last month marked the fourth anniversary of the US-led war on Iraq. Precisely on March 20, 2003, the US started bombarding Baghdad in what was the start of the American-led war in Iraq.
Today, the ongoing occupation of the former regional power has left significant ramifications and spurred world-wide condemnation.
Irrespective of nationality or religious inclination, the majority of people we surveyed are against the US attacking Iraq at the time the decision was made in 2003. The opposition to the war is especially strong amongst the Muslim population with nearly 8 out of 10 Muslim respondents saying they felt very unfavourable towards the US invading Iraq.
Many theories have been thrown around to elucidate why the US (and coalition forces) continue to occupy Iraq.
Respondents agree on three main explanations (in the order of most common response): to safeguard oil supplies and interests, to establish a military base in the region, and to end Saddam Hussain's rule.
The latter is an especially popular reason amongst Western respondents compared to Arab respondents. "Restricting the growth and power of Iran in the region" is also an attractive reason for 44 percent of the people surveyed.
This was indicated to us through the latest Gulf News survey with YouGov-Siraj (polling a total of 495 respondents, of which 67 were Emirati, 140 other Arabs, 146 Asians and 83 Westerners). Muslims number 274 (of which 33 per cent are Shiites and the rest Sunnis).
Knowing what has developed in Iraq since 2003, would those surveyed have felt favourable or unfavourable towards the invasion back in 2003? The overwhelming majority (83 per cent) would have been against the invasion. In particular, nearly 9 out of 10 Westerners would have been against it.
Amongst the overall sample, expectations are low regarding the success of the extra troops being positioned in Iraq, a decision which the US President George W. Bush recently confirmed with the redeployment of approximately 20,000 troops.
These troops will likely, however, be unsuccessful in stabilising the security situation in Baghdad, and restricting terrorist activities.
Bearing in mind that the number of Shiites polled is significantly smaller than that of the Sunnis, we asked whether they thought having extra troops in Iraq would succeed in restricting sectarian violence. Both groups agreed that those troops will cause a further rise to the sectarian tensions.
This leads us to the next question, should the US and coalition forces leave Iraq? Half the respondents say yes, of which more Sunnis than Shiites wish the US and coalition forces should leave Iraq now.
The rest are split; while nearly one in three, find that they should leave when the Iraqi Security Forces (i.e. Iraqi Army and Police) can manage the security situation, 24 per cent (especially amongst Westerners) feel the forces should leave when the elected government of Iraq asks for them to get out.
To date, the US has not decided on an exit date from Iraq. We asked our respondents how long they thought the coalition forces will maintain their military occupation of Iraq. With Arabs showing the most scepticism, the majority of our respondents feel it might be 5 or more years. Having said that, 22 per cent are unsure, making it difficult to draw a sharp conclusion.
We asked our respondents if they thought the Mahdi Army, a militia force and an Iraqi insurgent organization created by the Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada Al Sadr in June 2003, is supported by an outside power. Half those interviewed believe that Iran is supporting the Mahdi Army in Iraqi. This belief is particularly strong among Westerners, followed by "other Arabs".
Opinion varies when it comes to countries and/or organisations that are detrimentally impacting upon the political process and security situation in Iraq. While the Arabs have said (in order) that the US, Iran and Israel are the three main destabilising forces currently in Iraq, Westerners think the US, Al Qaida (in Iraq) and the Mahdi Army are the forces impeding the political process.
Asians also choose the US as the main stumbling block to peace, followed by Iran and Israel. In total, one third of our respondents feel the United Kingdom is a destablising force in Iraq.
By the same token one can ask who benefits from the current US-led occupation. Apart from the US itself, Israel is also named by half of those interviewed as the country most benefiting from the US and coalition forces' presence in Iraq.
More precisely, 65 per cent of Arabs (compared to 34 per cent of Westerners and 46 per cent of Asians) feel Israel is the main beneficiary. What is more, the number of Muslims (66 per cent) who feel Israel has gained from the current occupation is double that of the non-Muslims (33 per cent).
And who profits if the US and coalition forces leave Iraq? Forty per cent think Iran will be the main beneficiary followed by the Mahdi Army, Al Qaida, and Syria. It is worth noting that one third of respondents simply "don't know".
Future
The mood of uncertainty and cynicism takes over respondents as they ponder the future of Iraq. Among the overall sample, the majority of respondents are pessimistic about the unity of Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq over the next 5 years.
While Westerners are especially pessimistic with 8 out of 10 saying sectarianism in Iraq will not lessen, Muslims are somewhat more optimistic. The number of Shiites who are optimistic is double that of Sunnis - keeping in mind the disparity in numbers between the two groups.
While 42 per cent of respondents feel optimistic about the rebuilding of the Iraqi economy in the next 5 years, only 21 per cent feel optimistic about the equitable distribution of oil revenues during this same time period.
The majority of our respondents - across nationality and salary brackets - find that the heightened sectarian tensions in the region are a result of the US and coalition forces presence in Iraq.
Likewise, 8 in 10 of the total respondents polled feel that the escalation of political tensions in the region is associated with the US and coalition forces being present in Iraq. These feelings are further showcased in respondents' conviction that there is a likelihood that the situation in Iraq is going to affect other countries in the Middle East in the next 12 months.
Nine out of 10 Westerners believe that the increased appeal of extremist organisations in the region is related to the US/coalition presence in Iraq.
As a result of this US-led occupation, feelings of anti-Americanism have risen. Over 80 per cent (with 9 in 10 Westerners) feel that the increase in anti-US sentiment in the Middle East is attributed to the ongoing occupation of Iraq. As the age of respondents increases, so does the perception that this increase of anti-Americanism is linked to the military occupation of Iraq.
Currently, the situation in Iraq is being viewed mainly as a battleground for outside powers to operate from. 44 percent feel there is a civil war in Iraq (with 48 percent of Sunnis saying this compared to 33 per cent if Shiites).
Finally, leaving very little room for optimism, the majority of our respondents think that the US is likely to attack another country in the region within the next 12 months.
