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A dire set of predictions of the consequences of global warming in Europe is contained in a report for the European Commission.
It forecasts that by 2071 climate change will cause droughts and floods that will kill an extra 90,000 people a year while damage from rising sea levels will cost tens of billions of euros.
The Commission will endorse the report next week and use it to back its case for action to limit the rise in the world's average temperature to two degree centigrade above 1990 levels.
Ironically, those countries most committed to combating climate change, such as the UK and Sweden, would gain, with warmer temperatures bringing bigger crop yields and fewer deaths from cold.
The report, which draws on existing material and new information from the Commission's Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security satellite mapping project, posits two scenarios. One envisages a 2.2°C temperature rise, the other a 3°C rise.
Crop yields would rise by up to 70 per cent in northern Europe but fall by up to one-fifth in the south, depending on the temperature increase. "Plants and animals associated with certain geographic regions are moving or dying," the report says.
The sea level could rise by up to a metre. As early as 2020 the total cost would be 4.4 billion euros a year under the first scenario and 5.9 billion euros under the more extreme one, rising to 42.5 billion euros by 2080.
Shoring up coastal defences and rebuilding beaches would save two-thirds of the money in the long run, reducing the cost to 2.2 billion euros a year under the rosy scenario.
The ocean would acidify, hitting fish stocks. Fish would also migrate northwards. Droughts and floods would be more severe.
The cost of a flood in the Danube basin, as suffered by Hungary a few years ago, could rise 19 per cent. An extra 240,000 people would be affected.
With 2.2 per cent warming, almost 29,000 extra people would die annually in southern Europe from 2071-2100. In the north, 27,000 would die from heat but 20,000 would be saved from the cold.
The Commission also wants to include methane and nitrous oxide, two greenhouse gases produced by mining, agriculture and transport, in the emissions trading scheme.
Reducing their output would slow global warming and save billions in public health costs, the report claims. They shorten the average European citizen's life by eight months, it says.
The report has a hopeful conclusion. "Reducing global emissions in 2050 to a level that is 25 per cent below that of 1990 is both technically and economically achievable," the study concludes.
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